Malthusian pressure pg 98:
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The most frequently cited cause of presistent poverty in the pre-industrail world is population pressue, commonly attributed to Malthus(1778/2007, pg 13): Whocput it succintly:

  • The populaition cannot increase without the mean of substience is a proposition so evident that it needs no illustration.

Simple explanantion: pg 98
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  1. As imcome rises, more children survive to adulthood.
  2. As income rise, few people dies each year.
  3. As population increases, income per capital decrease:
    • Due to diminishing marginal product of labor.
  4. Hence, in the long run, population froth will absorb any gain in income.

The Malthusian model 98-99
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Depicted in a simple diagram
../../../Attachments/Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 11.42.40.png

  • Income per capita is on the horizontal axis.
  • The vertical axis panel the death/birth rate.
  • The lower panel depicts the rel;ationship between population and per capital income
    • It captures asusmption 3, if more resources such as akdn are relatively fixed, population groth reduces the marginal product of labor and results in each worker earning a lower income.
  • Suppose per capita income exceeds
    • In this case, the birth rate will exceed death rate and population will grow
    • Grow in population will cause per capita income to fall
    • The fall of per capita income will cause death rate to rise and birth rate fall(less children surive to adulthood.)
    • The economy return to equilibrium
  • Occatonal positive shock
    • such as a one-off improvement in technology or new crops
    • increase producticty and enable a period of population growth and temporary higher income.
    • However, it will return to in the end, as people have more babies that eat up the surplus.
    • Therefore, countries with more fertile land and higher technological level are only charaterized with higher population densities.

Demographic change:../../../Attachments/Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 11.51.08.png
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  • What heppens if there is a demographic change?
    • Consider the effects of a fall in birth rate
      • The death rate is unchanged
      • the population falls, and population falls
      • Therefore the marginal product of labor increase
      • Per capital income increase to
      • This increase is permanent as it is the new equilbrium.
    • Why might birth or death rates change?(Scheidel 2017) pg. 91
      • Dramatic shifts in death rates have been a common theme in human history.
      • The great levelers are typically:
        • Plague
        • War Revolution
        • State collpase.
      • Which reapeatedly brought massive and rapid deaths to human population.
    • The Malthusian logic suggest that these gragic circumstan increase average income:
      • Clark (2007, p.101) Pg 99
        • Draws out the stark and counter-intuitive implication:
          • The plague is beneficial as it raised living standards all across Europe.
          • On the flip side, Clark lists cleanliness, peace, charity, hard work, and parental solicitude as "Malthusian vices".
  • Skepticism on Malthusian prediction

    • Plague was only beneficial if we ignore the cost of elevated morality in assessing living standard.
    • It does not account the social and political disruption caused by frequent and unexpected deaths
  • Malthusian's framework, how it explains features of the world up to 1500(pg 100) Ashraf and Galor(2011)

    • Specifically, they find that countries that underwent agricultral transition earlier had more productive land and higher popultation densities in 1500, but not necessarily higher population income
    • Malthusian forces operated graudally in conjection with other factors.
      • Even in a Malthusian environment there is variation in living stands and economic growth is possible.
      • Shown in previous chapters, there were periods of relative prospserity in pre-modern Europe.
      • There were economic efflorescence with per capita income rose above subsistence in Classical Greece, the Roman Empire, and Song China.
    • Long-run dynamics of the world economy are consistence with the Malthusian model, but:
    • Malthusian dynamics dosen't necessarily provide a complete explanation of growth flucutation
    • The Malthusian feedback mechaniosm operate graudually and economy could be "out of euqilibrium" for decades or longers due to other reaspms.
    • Factors such as epidemics of dieseases and warfare impacted pre-industrial population can be more rapid and influencial than the graudal Malthusian feedback loops.
    • The reuslt was, some pre-industrail societies have significant variation.

Black death
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The most deadly pathogen to hit Europe and Asia
Killed a third of the world population.
../../../Attachments/Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 13.53.02.png

  • The Black Death was a massive shock to the population:(pg 94-95)
    • It reoccurred sporadically across Europe and the Middle East.
    • The initial period of pandemic as one of economic crisis.
    • Trade collasped and real wages fell as food was rotting in the fields and crops were not harvested.
    • Political elites tried to prevent wage rate from increasing.
      • England:
        • The statute of Laborers(1349) sought to limit nominal wages.
      • France:
        • Comparatble statue(1351) to regulate wages, prices, and guild admttances.
      • Florence:
        • Wage were permitted to rise only for urban workers and not for rural workers.
        • Rural workers faced stringnent regulations and saw their real wages fall, they had to pruchase basic commodities at a hyper-inflated prices(Cohn, 2007, p. 468)
    • Economics pressure excel the political will of the elites.(pg 95)
      • Real wages increased in the following decades
      • Pamuk(2007, p. 292) finds that the Black Death caused the urban real wages to rise by as much as 100% in the decades after 1350.
        • The real wage remains above their early level until late in 16th century.
      • This is true in Western Europe and East West Mediterranean.
    • Change in land use: (95-96)
      • Marginal lands were abandoned and landoweners shifted way from arable farming(labor-intensive) towards pastrol farming(land-intensive)
      • Jedwab, Johnson, and Koyama(2019)
        • Found Evidence of substantial geographic mobaility in the wake of the plaguue as people moved in search for better economic opportunities.
    • **Instituional consequence of the Black Death(pg 95):
      • Demise of serdom in Western Europe:
        • In 1300, half of the rural population were serfs. They owed labor and feudal due to their lords.
        • Bailey(2014) finds that, in England, serfdom was in sharp decline from 1350s.
        • Due to labor scarcity and falling land value from the black death.
        • There was no attempt to reimpose serdom after Black Death.
        • Demographic shock of plague made it impossbile for landlords to maintain or reinstate servile instituions and impose feudal dues on reclacitrant peasants.
      • ../../../Attachments/Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 13.53.58.png
    • Brenner(1976) (pg 95)
      • The end of serfdom in England permitted the rise of agrarian capitalism.
      • Former serfs became tenants and paid rent to landlords.
        • Land can easily be dispossed, and thus allows landholdings to be consolidated.
        • It was this agrarian capitalism make the increase agricultral productivity
        • It is one of the major factor that enable Industrail Revolution.
      • In contrst, French peasants gained control of their land.
        • This impeded the development and consoidation of large estates.
    • Acemoglu and Wolitzky(2011) (pg 95-96)
      • Provide a model of landlords use wages and coercion to incentivize peasansts.
      • The incentive use of or other depending on scarsity of labor and labor available.
      • In this modle, Black Death have countervailing effects.
        • The resulting scarcity of labor increased the incentive landlords had to use coercion and defend or reassert serfdom.
        • Labor scarcity also greatly improved the outside option of peason, and reduce the incentive to use coercion.
      • This effect dominated depended on their relative magniture.
      • The model indicate the cost of reliance on coercion ultimately outweight the benefit.
      • Keeping peasants enserfed was too expensive to justify the cost.
      • Coerciation is a viable strategy for landlords.
    • Voigtländer and Voth(2013b) (pg 96)
      • Aruge that the shock of the Black Death pushed Europe into a Malthusian steady-state.
        • Charaterized by higher per capita income
      • Higher income increased the demand of manufatured goods, including luxuries.
      • As income rose, worker spend higher proportion on manufactured goods.
      • Greater demand lead to higher level of trande and urbanisation.
      • Warfare push people into urban areas.
      • Urban cities push death rate(dieseases).
      • The origin of Western Europe's relative high income in the centuries prior to the Industrail Revolution.
        • This can be found in the "Three Horsemen of Riches"

Household formation and the European Marriage pattern (pg 96)
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In the simple malthusian model, living standards are determined by the intersection of fertility and mortality.
../../../Attachments/Screenshot 2023-11-10 at 11.54.18.png
The digram showed that the higher income per capita can be obtained if fertility is restrained.
Malthus considered this possibility, distingusihing it as a preventive check (opposed to a positive check: dieases and starvation) (pg 97)

  • One example of preventive check was the practice of late marriage.
  • European marriage pattern(EMP)(Hajnal 1965)(pg 97-98)
    • Women tends to marry in mid-twenties
    • Before modern period, female age at marriage was important in determining aggregate fertility.
    • Birth control within marraige was not widely practiced.
    • Fertility within marraige remained high.
    • In average, every two year women was not married reduce the number of children by one.
    • The European marrage pttern was asociated with small, nuclear households, based on a single married couple.(pg 98)
    • Prior to marraige, young people worked in other households, women make independent decistion. (Hajnal, 1982, p. 475)
    • Charateristics:
      • High age of first marriage: ≈ 25 for women.
      • Very low levels of illegitimacy.
      • ≈ 10% never marry.
      • Nuclear families rather than stem families (adult married children live with one set of parents in the latter).
  • Pre-industrial societies outside the northwestern Europe (pg 98)
    • There, joint housholds, comprising two or more married couples, wer common.
      • Charaterized by universal and early marriage and high fertility.
  • These two systems reacted differently to population pressure. In joint housholds, an icnrease in te popuulation might increase the underemployment of married adults.
  • EMP allow more women to earn money indenpentntly prior to marriage, and engale them to make decision independently.(de Moor and Van Zanden, 2010)
  • Labor markets played a critical role in this development.
  • The origin of EMP is difficult to trace, but became prominent folloing black death.

Did the EMP spur economic growth? (pg 100)
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Two claims:
EMP played an important role in restraining fertility and hence maintaily per capita income(Weak claim)
EMP played an importatn role in the transition to modern economic growth. (Strong claim)

  • Voigtländer and Voth (2013a) argue that the demographic shock of the Black Death had a differential effect on Northern and Southern Europe.
    • Northern Europe: Land could be turned over to pastoral agriculture, increasing demand for female labor.
    • Southern Europe: Land more suited for arable farming.
  • As pastoral farming increased the demand for female labor, it contributed to labor and marriage market outcomes that resulted in late marriages and restricted fertility (EMP).
    Industrialization and low-pressure demographic regime:
  • Voigtländer and Voth (2006) simulate a model of the English economy between 1700 and 1850.
  • They find that industrialization was dependent on England's low-pressure demographic regime.
  • High-fertility regime leads to faster population growth, pushing down per capita incomes and reducing effective demand for manufactured goods.
  • England's low birth rates prevented this scenario and allowed for sustained economic growth.
    EMP and human capital investment:
  • Foreman-Peck (2011) argues that EMP, by lowering birth rates, also lowered death rates and encouraged investment in human capital.
  • Families trade off quantity and quality of offspring in response to relative prices.
  • Suggestive empirical evidence in 19th-century England shows low birth rates associated with lower infant mortality and greater human capital investments.

Reasons for skepticism (pg 100-101)
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Dennision and Ogilvie(2014)

  • Aruge that there is not relationship between EMP and sustained economic growth.
  • EMP was the most developed in part in central Europe with economic stagnation.
  • It was only England's uniqe demographic and fertitly esepcially responsive to economic condition.
  • They show that hen measured the age of first marriage, EMP was less extreme in England than elsewhere.
  • Intitution is not necessarily opposite to EMP arguments
    • Carmichael, de Pleijt, van Zanden, and de Moor (2016)
      • EMP was a reflection of a wider institution based on joint household and marraige based on cnsent.
      • It cannot simply measured by age of first marriage.
      • Economcally successful region with EMP instituions had lower marraige age than those with stagnating EMP regions.
    • EMP does not always simply reflect a voluntary decison between bride and groom.Dennision and Ogilvie(2014)
      • Local insitutions such as fuilds excluded women, and economically independent women were often harassed by landlords.

Demographic change and the transition to modern economic growth. (pg 101)
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(Galor and Weil 2000), (Galor,2005), (Galor,2011)

  • The transition from Malhusian Stagnation to modern economic growth has been stuied by Galor and co-authors.
  • Unified growth theory
    • Galor proposed a unified theory of the transition from Malthusian stagation to sustained economic growth based on the incentive to invest in human capital.
    • Account two important developments:
      1. The gruadal increase in growth rates that occurred during the Industrial revolution.
      2. Demographic transitiion in the late 19th and early 20th century..
    • The demographic transition ensure income rose and decrease the increase in rate of natural population.
    • Begin with the fact that for most of history:
      • The rate of technological progress was low
      • Returns to investment in human capital were also slow.
        • Parent thus have little incentive to invest in education.
        • Invest in quantity over quality.
        • Lower per capital income.
    • Investment in human capital occur when the stock of human capital is enough that technological improvelemts is common.(pg 102)
      • It started with, the larger population bring the higher chance of major invention or new idea.
    • Overtime, the increase in stock of knowledge increase returns to human capital.
      • Furthermore increase rate of economic growth
      • The second phases of Industiral revolution after 1850 lead to widespread increase in demand for more educated workers.

Chapter Summary:
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  • Births and Deaths in Economic History:
    • Basic facts of births and deaths shape economic history.
    • Even the English royal family faced these realities.
  • Demography's Macro-Level Impact:
    • Historians link pre-industrial ups and downs to demography.
    • The Black Death dramatically culled Europe's population, raising wages.
  • Influence of Marriage and Household Practices:
    • Birth rates tied to marriage and household patterns.
    • In ancient Rome, early marriages contributed to low incomes for unskilled workers.
  • European Marriage Pattern:
    • After the Black Death, age at first marriage rose in medieval Europe.
    • This pattern moderated demographic pressure, maintaining higher wages.
  • Industrial Revolution and Demographic Transition:
    • Industrial Revolution led to modest per capita income growth.
    • Demographic transition slowed population growth, sustaining per capita income rise.
  • Role of Demographic Transition:
    • Examined further in Chapter 9, it's a key to sustained economic growth.
    • Encourages investment in human capital.
  • Unified Growth Theory and Human Capital:
    • As technological progress accelerates, returns to human capital increase.
    • Parents shift from large families to smaller, highly educated ones.
  • Demography's Crucial Role:
    • Enabled parts of the world to become rich.
    • Its decisiveness is debated.